#NoEstimates
Going Beyond Estimates
blog.karhatsu.com | Henri Karhatsu | @karhatsu
"#NoEstimates is a hashtag for the topic of exploring alternatives to estimates for making decisions in software development. That is, ways to make decisions with 'No Estimates'."
"We are uncovering better ways of developing software by doing it and helping others do it."
#NoEstimates isn't about denying to estimate.
It's about finding better ways to decide.
We need estimates?
Need to decide what to do next
▼
Need to decide the content of marketing material
▼
Need to know when it's ready
▼
Need to estimate
What next decision
Opportunity cost
=
If we choose to build feature A now,
we will build feature B later or never
What next decision
Cost of Delay
=
How much will we lose over time
when not having this feature available?
Attribute substitution
~ Replacing a difficult question
with a simpler question
in order to be able to decide
Dangerous attribute substitution
When will this be ready?
▶
How long will the programming take?
What about interruptions, rework, waiting, queues, etc?
(Flight Duration Fallacy)
Asking for estimates
vs.
Looking the data
Example data from real project
Example forecasts from real project
Forecasted work days for the next 10 tasks
Changing the system conditions
When will I get the book I ordered?
Estimates are obviously needed here
Are they?
Software organization structure as a system condition
Initial situation
After splitting dev team
Change in the organization structure made it possible to abandon estimation in daily work (Team 2)
But long before that...
"We do sprint planning estimates because Scrum"
Sprint estimation without benefits
Estimates bringing no predictability
Estimates not helping in decision making
Unmotivated developers
Calculatory cost of sprint planning ~100 000 euros/year
Continuous improvement
Smarter sprint plannings
Splitting tasks
Better collaboration in the team
Improvements in testing
Improvements in CI process
...
Team split
Result
Stable releases every 2 weeks
Increased trust
Deliver working software often in small enough pieces in tight collaboration with the stakeholders.
Trust ▲
Need for estimates ▼
Sometimes you need to change your system conditions first, sometimes you need...
Courage to try
"Creativity is courage"
http://visible-quality.blogspot.fi/2014/11/power-of-stories-and-how-one-hour.html
The big project question
It would be risky to start without estimates
But are you aware of all the risks related to making the project decision based on estimates?
Risks of estimate-driven decision making
Mindset of bigness
Either-or mindset
Faulty assumptions without validation
Commitments based on guesses
Estimates becoming targets
Focus on output instead of outcomes
False sense of certainty
...
Alternatives
Lean Startup
If you are not sure whether
you are building the right thing,
validate your guesses first.
Don't try to estimate a project
that should never be started.
Start with small
Instead of committing yourself to 6 months project,
can you first commit to 1 month?
- Investment to knowledge (with known price).
- Working software and learning
- Possibility to collect data of your progress (ref. forecasting).
- Possibility to increase trust between stakeholders
- Option to quit, option to continue
Vendor selection problem
You have already decided to start the project and you want estimates from your vendor candidates to see who is making the best offer.
Don't.
Vendor selection
- Choose your vendor based on their skills and capabilities.
- If they promise the solution in 6 months, don't get excited, be skeptical instead.
- Ask them how they are going to approach the problem.
- Work together to find out how the work can be split.
- Work together to find out what are the riskiest parts that should be tested first.
- Prefer vendors who accept short term of notice.
- Think about the cost
Summary
Don't be afraid to open the door, go beyond estimates.
There is an interesting world full of opportunities.
Understand the need behind estimating.
Try to find better ways to meet those needs.
Work on improving your system conditions.
Be courageous. Be willing to explore.
It's about seeing the world from a different angle.
museumofselfies.tumblr.com
Thank you.
www.karhatsu.com/agilia15
@karhatsu
blog.karhatsu.com