"#NoEstimates is a hashtag for the topic of exploring alternatives to estimates for making decisions in software development. That is, ways to make decisions with 'No Estimates'."
"We are uncovering better ways of developing software by doing it and helping others do it."
#NoEstimates isn't about denying to estimate.
It's about finding better ways to decide.
Need to decide what to do next
Need to decide the content of marketing material
Need to know when it's ready
Need to estimate
If we choose to build feature A now,
we will build feature B later or never
Cost of Delay
How much will we lose over time
when not having this feature available?
~ Replacing a difficult question
with a simpler question
in order to be able to decide
When will this be ready?
How long will the programming take?
What about interruptions, rework, waiting, queues, etc?
(Flight Duration Fallacy)
Forecasted work days for the next 10 tasks
Estimates are obviously needed here
Change in the organization structure made it possible to abandon estimation in daily work (Team 2)
"We do sprint planning estimates because Scrum"
Estimates bringing no predictability
Estimates not helping in decision making
Calculatory cost of sprint planning ~100 000 euros/year
Smarter sprint plannings
Better collaboration in the team
Improvements in testing
Improvements in CI process
Stable releases every 2 weeks
Deliver working software often in small enough pieces in tight collaboration with the stakeholders.
Need for estimates ▼
Sometimes you need to change your system conditions first, sometimes you need...
"Creativity is courage"
It would be risky to start without estimates
But are you aware of all the risks related to making the project decision based on estimates?
Mindset of bigness
Faulty assumptions without validation
Commitments based on guesses
Estimates becoming targets
Focus on output instead of outcomes
False sense of certainty
If you are not sure whether
you are building the right thing,
validate your guesses first.
Don't try to estimate a project
that should never be started.
Instead of committing yourself to 6 months project,
can you first commit to 1 month?
You have already decided to start the project and you want estimates from your vendor candidates to see who is making the best offer.
Don't be afraid to open the door, go beyond estimates.
There is an interesting world full of opportunities.
Understand the need behind estimating.
Try to find better ways to meet those needs.
Work on improving your system conditions.
Be courageous. Be willing to explore.
It's about seeing the world from a different angle.